If the election were held today, the president would be imposed in the first round over half of the votes.
Five months and one week of day that will define the political project for the next four years, Cristina Fernandez has an intention to vote between 45 and 50%.
A divided opposition and desire for continuity of policies that were carried out so far are, according to leading pollsters, the two main axes that explain the steady rise in the polls that began in January 2010.
The five probes that were surveyed showed the numbers are there in the chair to climb on stage and allies and opponents warned that "we must take care model."
"Cristina is more than half of the electoral universe. Other forces will be diminished in its variety. There is no bias because there is no other that constitutes a clear and strong rival, Juan Manuel Aurelio described, director of the consulting Aresco, Julio Aurelio.
"In view of the weakness that had several candidates have decided to leave the ring. The vacancy left electoral strength is not necessarily opposed to other candidates because you can not unite ideologically different country projects. Not everyone who would vote to Macri now going to vote for Duhalde. The same if the UCR and Francisco de Narváez join, do not add up, "he said.
Cristina Fernandez has 52.7% of likely voters, followed by Eduardo Duhalde very low with 17.8% and further back by Ricardo Alfonsin with 10.8%. These data, including projection of undecided voters were surveyed by the consultant in July Aurelio last month, when Fernando "Pino" Solanas and Mauricio Macri had already announced his defection in the presidential race.
In turn, the Equis consulting firm, conducted a survey in April in the provinces of Cordoba, Mendoza, Salta, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires and the City of Buenos Aires in which Cristina is around 50% of voting intentions, followed far behind by former candidate Mauricio Macri with 10% Duhalde and more down to 7%.
For its part, the consultant Ricardo Rouvier and Associates shows a similar scenario. In a poll conducted on Friday, two days after the president gave his speech in which he criticized the actions of some unionists and warned not to die "and return to being president," the numbers are still more favorable to its eventual application. As Cristina measured at 49.8%, Ricardo Alfonsin has 22.3%, Eduardo Duhalde 6.6%, Alberto Rodriguez Saa 6% and Elisa Carrio closes the pack with 4.8% of intention.
Meanwhile, for the consulting Ibarómetro Cristina Fernández measured 44.6%, 12% Alfonsin, Mauricio Macri (already lowered) by 9.9% and 9% Rodriguez Saa. However, this data is added an analysis of perception of winners, or beyond who go to vote, the question focuses on who they believe will end up winning. In that item, the president reached 59.2% and very low figure of 9.6% Alfonsin. "The subjective forecast Kirchner's victory is more than 15 points in the voting intentions of force. Even among those who disapprove management Kirchner, Cristina Fernandez leads the ranking of perceived winners of the elections for president. "
For its part, the OPSM polling place earlier this month a poll of 1100 respondents in 65 locations across the country. The results coincide with those of their colleagues. While the president has 41.7% of voting intentions, Alfonsin measured 18.4%, 11.1% Duhalde has, Rodriguez Saa Carrió 7.3% and 5.1%.
Fiorito Pablo Lopez, director of consultancy projects Ibarómetro, believes the numbers favor Cristina explained by two main principles: government action and inaction of the opposition. "The opposition has no candidate. For two months now they got six presidential candidates: Mario Das Neves, Julio Cobos, Ernesto Sanz, Mauricio Macri y Pino Solanas. To this is added the great role of the open internal Federal PJ. Demonstrated in the attitude of Jorge Busti, freeing their people to vote for Cristina. Peronism is who is now the locomotive and the reality is that Peronism is kirchnerismo possible. Peronism Any intending to go out on track to newsprint. So far Sergio Massa wants to compete in the PJ in the province of Buenos Aires ", analyzed the sociologist.
"The national government and the president is showing a solvent and a consistency that is not in any opposition candidate. Faced with a model that works, she is the only alternative to to continue and even to improve it. People do not want big changes, but follow the same project, and still wish to deepen certain social and other institutions. The opposition, proposing that Kirchner is the worst, is outside the lines of the discussion, because it aims to generate a change that people do not want. "
Juan Manuel Aurelio, the Aresco consultant, says that five months presidential election are strong values. "The process of recovery and growth of the national government began in December 2009, January 2010. The image of the government had reached its lowest values \u200b\u200bafter the legislative defeat of 2009 and the agrarian conflict. This began to be reversed because the government's actual achievements, political point that people make clear reference when asked the reason or justification for his vote. On the one hand there is a perception of economic prosperity and good prospects for the future. There is also a strong disbelief that another candidate has been able to do things better than the national government. To this are added to specific issues such as the Universal for Child and social inclusion in general. It also highlights that were waiting policies and measures related to human rights, equal marriage law and media law. Moreover, respondents argue often the government would not vote if you stop doing these things. "
Aurelio also adds an element that is not little at a time to elect a political project. "There is also a strong ideological axis identification of much of the population, especially the younger segments that occurs after a period of disbelief in politics in recent years," says the analyst.
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